UK’s 3rd Five Year Climate Change Risk Assessment

The importance of nature based solutions with effective monitoring and evaluation in tackling climate change risks is noted by the Government in its 3rd five year Climate Change Risk Assessment for the UK, published on 17th January 2022.

The Risk Assessment identifies a total of 61 climate risks which will affect households, businesses and public services. It notes that potential economic damages in excess of £1 billion per year by 2050 are associated with the 8 top risks alone – those which are deemed to require the most urgent action over the next two years:

• Habitats and species: risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multiple hazards

• Soil health: risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought

• Natural carbon stores and sequestration: risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions

• Crops, livestock and commercial trees: risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple hazards

• Supply of food, goods and vital services: risks to supply of food, goods and vital services due to climate-related collapse of supply chains and distribution networks

• Power system: risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system

• Overheating: risks to human health, wellbeing and productivity from increased exposure to heat in homes and other buildings

• Overseas impacts: multiple risks to the UK from climate change impacts overseas.

The importance of nature based solutions in tackling the first four of these is recognised, including

• Active habitat management

• Soil-friendly farming practices, including no-till and precision farming

• Nutrient management and emissions reductions on farms and rural estates

• Good water management on agricultural and forested land

• Peatland restoration and re-wetting to combat wildfire risk

• Tree planting – where the right tree is planted in the right place

Tellus Natural Capital has been calling for support for baseline assessment and ongoing monitoring to be an integral part of future schemes and we are encouraged to note that the Risk Assessment accepts that monitoring and evaluation will be crucial to ensuring the success of these strategies:

“Defra acknowledges the importance of monitoring and surveillance to ensure quantifiable results and impacts. Natural England is developing advice on a monitoring and evaluation framework for the NRN. Evaluation will be informed by data gathered at a national and local level including funding, impacts and spatial data.”

We await with interest further detail about Natural England’s work in this area. Meanwhile, it is clear that climate change policies will continue to drive funding for farming, land use and the environment into these 8 priority areas.

18th January 2022